Unified shelter flow — all sources combined
Source × cadence coverage
National adoption trend (Y/Y)
Methodology & confounders
NPFI = 0.50·z(ShelterFlow) + 0.30·z(BreederFlow) + 0.20·z(CommerceFlow). Each component z-scored against its 36-month rolling history.
ShelterFlow = (adoption + return-to-owner + transfer-out) − (owner_surrender + euthanasia + died_in_care). Stray intake is excluded from outflows — 34% of strays are returned to owner, so counting them would double-count re-formed relationships.
Cadence honesty: a national daily census does not exist. The dashboard shows daily ground-truth from ~5 city open-data feeds (≈0.5% of US flow) as a leading indicator; the proper national cadence is monthly (SAC dashboard). 24Pet ShelterWatch weekly (~35% of US shelter pop) is being integrated to give us a fast national cadence.
Confounders: shelter data captures ~15-30% of total pet flow (breeders + private sales are invisible); stray intake is dirty; large seasonal patterns (kitten season, post-holiday returns); reporting lag varies; capacity censoring during shelter overcrowding.